Previous
The previous figure from the last release.
Forecast
What economists or analysts expect the new figure to be.
Actual
The number that is eventually released.
Example
Previous: 4.0%
Forecast: 3.8%
Actual: 3.2%
The actual result was significantly lower than expected.
This could cause the market to react.
However, there is no universal rule saying:
“Lower number = price goes down.”
The effect depends on:
- What the data measures
- Which currency is involved
- Current market expectations
- Interest-rate expectations
- Broader economic conditions
Key Takeaways
Never think of news as simply:
“Good news = market goes up.”
Instead ask:
What was expected?
What was released?
How does this change expectations?
Disclaimer
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
